13 Black Swans Swirling Above The US Economy

The black swans are circling like vultures now. Dark economic events seem to be flying in out of nowhere for those who have vision to see them. Even dovish New York Fed President William Dudley, who cannot tell the difference between money and hot air, sees a lot of black in the skies now and says that he is less confident about the economy than he was when he and his Fed partners voted to raise interest rates last December:

Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and a permanent voter on U.S. monetary policy, suggested that the sharp global economic slowdown, stock-market sell-off and oil price slide since the beginning of the year may force the Fed to tighten monetary policy even more slowly…. With turbulence in global financial markets reflecting mixed economic signals, the risks appear to have increased. (NewsMax)

Yes, Dudley did wrong with perfect timing and voted to raise interest rates into a crashing economy. For some reason, he didn’t see the global slowdown coming, never mind that it had already begun last fall; but he sure sees it now. He could have read all about it right here for months before he took part in an ill-fated decision. Now he’s losing confidence. If he’s not confident in the recovery, and he was one of the architects, why should you be?

US stock market cheerleader, Jim Cramer, is counting black swans, too

Jim Cramer, CNBC’s hyperactive host of Mad Money, thinks the Fed is flying blind. He believes the Fed might not understand the life of the common man from within their first-class flights to Fed meetings and chauffeured limousines. Gee, you think?

I almost wonder if they live in a vacuum. Who are they talking to? Don’t they at least have some buddies who are concerned about a recession? Don’t they know some people are pulling back from investing…? When you look beyond the market’s tight linkage to the price of oil, the idea that we could be headed into a recession has become a powerful theme, a whispered undercurrent in this environment that surfaces whenever oil takes a dive. (NewsMax)

You almost wonder? Of course, they live in a vacuum. And from their vacuums, they are creating a world of Hoovervilles. Of course, Cramer likes to roll dice in the Fed’s Wall Street casino. He knows that Fed free money was the only game in town, driving the stock market higher in past years. He loved a good rigged game of predictable market gains! The market soared every time the Fed threw money around the craps tables. It didn’t even matter what number you rolled. Almost every bet was a winner. It’s hard to make money now without Fed free money floating down like confetti over the marketplace everyday.

So, yes, recession is now a powerful theme that keeps popping its ugly black head out from unexpected places, such as out of the mouth of Jim Cramer. It whispers among the chatter of Citigroup’s flock of analysts. It keeps JP Morgan meetings all aflutter. You hear it everywhere now. Not a day goes by without people wondering if recession is lurking in the wings.

Here are a few of the dark whispers and black swans that are swirling above the US economy: