2-Year Treasury Yield Spikes, Close To Six-Year High

A December interest-rate hike is a “live possibility,” Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in yesterday’s testimony in Congress. The Treasury market took the hint and the 2-year Note—said to be the most sensitive maturity for rate expectations—jumped to 0.84% yesterday (Nov. 3), edging up to the highest level in nearly six years, based on daily data from Treasury.gov. Since last month’s low on Oct. 14, the 2-year yield has climbed sharply, rising 27 basis points.

Interest rates have been on a rollercoaster in recent months as incoming economic reports have delivered mixed messages. But Yellen’s message is that the economy’s still recovering, albeit unevenly lately. Nonetheless, she emphasized that the forward momentum is sufficiently strong to raise the possibility that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy, if only slightly, at next month’s FOMC meeting. Yes, we’ve heard this before, only to learn later that the expecting a hike was premature, thanks to the news du jour. Is this time different? Maybe, although much depends on how the numbers stack up in the weeks ahead. Meantime, the crowd’s on board with assuming that the first rate hike is near.

Indeed, the 2-year yield has surged in recent days. The benchmark 10-year yield’s climb is less striking but the rebound is still conspicuous on this front too.

There’s also a modest edge in Fed fund futures for pricing in a rate hike for the Dec. 16 FOMC meeting. Based on data for yesterday, 30-day futures estimate a 56% probability that Fed funds will rise to 0.5% from the currently zero-to-0.25% target, according to CME’s numbers.

The recent change in expectations pulled the 2-year yield back into a bullish formation via a set of exponential moving averages (EMAs). After slumping in previous weeks, the 50-day EMA for the 2-year yield has rebounded and is again signaling higher rates for the near term.