31 March 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Degradation Continues

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 54th week – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their inflation index.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle but show the rate of growth slowing. They are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The February index value (issued in March) shows the rate of economic growth marginally slowing.

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Near 8 3/4 year high

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge decreased to 113.2 from a 113.5 reading in February, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“While the USFIG dipped in March, it remains in a cyclical upswing,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “In essence, underlying inflation pressures are still elevated.”