A Cloud Over Housing

In September builders started fewer homes than the month before, which means the peak this year was in June, and since then housing starts have been falling. September fell 4.7% from August. Still they were higher by 6.1% from a year ago so not all is dire. It is a concern that this is the third month in a row that starts have fallen. Single family homes were also down but to a lesser extent.

Turning to permits, which give us a look at the future, they too were down, falling 4.5% and down 4.3% year over year. However, removing the multi-family permits and focusing solely on single family home permits that number was up 2.4% to the highest level since March.

The conclusion is yes there are some weaknesses and it is something to watch. There are also some important strengths in housing, namely the single family unit market. Another conclusion is maybe the numbers for September were weak because we are still recovering from the hurricanes in Florida and Texas and it takes time to get a permit to begin new construction.