A New Era For Oil & Gas

Energy price movements amaze me. Starting in 1973, crude oil soared from under $20 a barrel to more than $115 by early 1980. Less than two years later, it dropped back below $100, a threshold it would not see again for 25 years.The ride down was not smooth, but it eventually bottomed out below $17 at the end of 1998.

From there, the cycle began again, zooming through $50, $60, $70, and $80 before taking a brief pause. From January 2007 through June of the following year, the price of crude oil went on a meteoric rise from $64 to $145 per barrel. It was in the midst of last decade’s commodity boom, and experts were predicting even more gains ahead.The financial crisis brought about the collapse of many things, including crude oil, which abruptly fell back below $44. However, those bargain prices were short-lived, and prices ranging between $80 and $120 became the norm until the second half of 2014.

Many people, including myself, were convinced that crude-oil prices below $70 a barrel were a historical relic, something we could one day tell our grandkids about. Today, less than a year and a half later, many are beginning to ask the opposite question.Will we ever see crude-oil prices north of $70 again? The recent plunge has been nothing short of brutal, with prices dipping below $30 yesterday.

In contrast to the ups and downs of oil since 2008, natural-gas prices have been in a relatively consistent downtrend during that period .From more than $13 down to $1.80 last month. Once prices fall so far, any further movement seems astonishing in percentage terms. A few weeks ago, I discussed how leveraged ETFs exaggerate those moves even more.

There is a new ETF on the market called the Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bear 3x Shares (GASX). As its name implies, it tracks an index of stocks involved in the exploration and production of natural gas. Additionally, it moves 300% in the inverse (opposite) direction of those stocks each and every day. If the index falls 5%, then this fund will jump 15% higher.Over the past week, this ETF has gained 76.5%. That is not a misprint. Since its trading debut about six weeks ago on December 3, GASX has more than doubled in value with a 134.8% gain.