ADP Employment Slows Further; Services Job Growth Weakens As Manufacturing Jobs Drop By 2,000

Having relatively disappointed all year, compared to 2014’s high levels, ADP for October printed 182k (practically in with expectations of 180k and below September’s revised lower 190k) – the lowest since July. Following September’s biggest manufacturing job losses since Jan 2010, October saw further losses (-2k) and Services job growth slowed as small business gains dominated large business (which ADP reports facing strong dollar challenges). December rate hike odds were 52.0% before ADP with no significant change yet.

Zoomed in:

Compared to NFP:

And by industry:

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

But manufacturing lost jobs again

A glass-half-full Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said:

“Job growth as measured by the ADP Research Institute is not slowing meaningfully in contrast with the recent slowdown in the government’s data. The economy is creating close to 200,000 jobs per month. Job gains are broad based with energy and manufacturing alone subtracting from the top line. Small businesses, in particular, are contributing to the labor market’s solid performance.”

As ADP details,

Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 90,000 jobs in October, almost double the revised September gain of 47,000. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 63,000 jobs, up 50 percent from the previous month. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – rose by 29,000 jobs in October after adding 101,000 the previous month. Companies with 500-999 added 7,000 jobs. Companies with over 1,000 employees gained 22,000 jobs, after adding 100,000 in September.

Goods-producing employment rose by 24,000 jobs in October, representing the best month in this sector since January of this year. The construction industry added 35,000 jobs in October, roughly matching September’s gain. Meanwhile, manufacturing remained in negative territory losing 2,000 jobs in October after shrinking by 17,000 in September.

Service-providing employment rose by 158,000 jobs in October, down from a downwardly revised 182,000 in September. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 13,000 jobs in October, less than half the September number. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 35,000, off slightly from the previous month. The 9,000 new jobs added in financial activities were the fewest in this industry in the last six months.

“Firm size contributions to October employment gains returned to the same pattern we had been seeing for some time prior to September as small businesses rebounded to account for almost half the jobs added,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute.“Large companies continue to be negatively impacted by trends such as low oil prices and the strong dollar driving weaker exports. On the other hand, small businesses can benefit from these same trends.”