Apple Stock Rallies As Bulls Fight Back Against Iphone X Sales Reports

Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) stock rallied on Thursday after a sudden downturn early this week as investors began to worry that the iPhone X isn’t doing as well as initially thought. However, the gap between the bull and bear cases for Apple stock appears to be widening, as the company received a rare downgrade for growing caution about iPhone X sales as some analysts warn that the high price tag is keeping consumers away.

Meanwhile, other analysts insist that the price tag doesn’t matter, and the iPhone X really is selling as well as expected.

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Growing caution around Apple stock for iPhone X

Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers waded into the fray with a note on Wednesday afternoon, adding his analysis of mobile phone export data out of China. He found a 17% year-over-year increase in total mobile phone exports from China in November and a 5% increase for October and November combined. He added that exports from iPhone-focused provinces were up 18% year over year on a USD basis for November but less than 1% for October and November combined.

The timing of Apple’s iPhone releases this year is a major factor because historically, October has been the peak month for exports, but this year, the iPhone X wasn’t released until November. Exports from Zhengzhou Customers, which is the largest iPhone shipment port, were up 17% in terms of dollars in November, but down 8% in units, likely because of the iPhone X’s high price tag. Looking at the top three ports for iPhone shipments, total mobile phone shipments in November were down 6% in U.S. dollars and down 2.5% in units.

No iPhone upside for Apple this year

Excluding China, he now pegs iPhone shipments in the low- to mid-60 million, which would be right in line with the 63.4 million iPhones Apple shipped during the fourth quarter of 2016. He added that this implied shipment estimate leaves about 15 million to 20 million iPhone shipments in China, compared to 14.9 million in last year’s fourth quarter. However, he views this as being “optimistic,” so he sees limited or no upside potential to his estimate of 81.2 million iPhones for the December quarter.