April 2016 CPI: Inflation Little Changed

by Doug Short and Steven Hansen

According to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate was 1.1 % – an increase from last month’s 0.9 %. The year-over-year core inflation (excludes energy and food) rate declined 0.1% to 2.1 %, and remains slightly above the target set by the Federal Reserve.

The market expected (from Bloomberg):

As a generalization – inflation accelerates as the economy heats up, while inflation rate falling could be an indicator that the economy is cooling. However, inflation does not correlate well to the economy – and cannot be used as a economic indicator.

The major influence on the CPI was energy prices.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The seasonally adjusted all items increase was broad-based, with the indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy all rising in April. The food index rose 0.2 percent after declining in March, with the food at home index increasing slightly. The index for energy increased 3.4 percent, with the gasoline index rising 8.1 percent, and the indexes for fuel oil and natural gas also advancing.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in April. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, as did the index for medical care, and the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, recreation, and education increased as well. Several other component indexes increased slightly, including those for alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and personal care. In contrast, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, and communication all declined.

The all items index rose 1.1 percent for the 12 months ending April, a larger increase than the 0.9- percent increase for the 12 months ending March. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, compared to a 2.2-percent rise for the 12 months ending March. The food index has risen 0.9 percent over the last 12 months, and the energy index has declined 8.9 percent.