Are Yellen And The Fed Tuned Into The U.S. Economy?

Many people are not particularly happy with Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and her recent take on the U.S. economy. The miniscule rate hike implemented in December was a mere drop in the bucket according to some analysts and many lawmakers are concerned with the chair’s future moves.

At a meeting before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington on Wednesday, Yellen practically admitted that she didn’t know which direction the Fed would be taking and despite her forecast several months ago that there would be 4 small rate increases in 2016, she seems to be backtracking now.

In fact, while the Fed continues to predict four interest rate hikes this year, the market now forecasts zero hikes in 2016. The closely watched Fed Futures market now stands at a 60% probability of no rate hikes at all this year, a dramatic U-turn from only a month ago when the market was pricing in a 75% probability the Fed would increase rates at least once in 2016.

Yellen at Senate

The Fed chair is expected to continue her testimony on Capitol Hill when she speaks to the Senate today and her testimony is not expected to surprise. Her main concerns at the moment are the strength of the U.S. dollar, stock volatility in the U.S. and increasing costs for borrowing money.

The strong dollar hurts U.S. companies that sell products abroad because it makes those goods more expensive for foreign buyers resulting in a severe loss for American manufacturers and exporters.

2016 started off rather poorly for the U.S. stock markets and the broad S&P 500 is already down 8.5% for the first six weeks of the year.

As far as borrowing costs, Yellen has already pointed to the Fed’s latest survey of banks which showed that borrowing rates have already gone up and that commercial lending standards are tightening. Junk bond market rates have been rising, especially after one junk bond fund, the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund, collapsed in December. In addition, many oil companies have either filed for bankruptcy and defaults are skyrocketing.