With major financial stocks recording double-digit gains since Donald Trump’s election win in November, a pair of Wall Street analysts urged continued bullishness on the sector today, including a call by Oppenheimer to “let the bet ride” despite increasingly full valuations.
OPCO SAYS RIDE THE RALLY: While conceding that financials are “getting more fully valued” after their post-election rally, Oppenheimer’s Chris Kotowski recommends investors “let the bet ride” ahead of potential “Goldilocks years” for banks in 2017-2018. The analyst believes that rate hike potential is the “real and immediate” benefit from Donald Trump’s win, and Kotowski now assumes four 25-point increases from this December to May of 2018. He is not a great buyer, however, on speculation of regulatory and tax easing under Trump, saying the former “certainly” won’t impact 2017-2018 earnings. On potential tax changes, Kotowski believes the concept remains “too ill-defined to model,” though it appears a likely boon for domestic banks and “might mean” double-digit earnings gains. Maintaining a “somewhat overweight stance” on the group, the analyst explains that the next two years may be a Goldilocks period “because credit costs are likely to remain low, expenses have been tamped down and will likely stay that way, but revenues seem poised to get a lift. The stocks are no longer cheap, but not expensive either.” Kotowski’s favorite picks in the sector remain Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), CIT Group (CIT) and Goldman Sachs (GS), though he admits the temptation to take some profits, especially given that a 5%-10% correction is “probably never more than a single tweet away.”
MAYO BOOSTS TARGETS FOR FINANCIALS: Also bullish on financials today is CLSA’s Mike Mayo, who raised his price targets and estimates on a wide range of stocks in the space, including JPMorgan (JPM), State Street (STT), BB&T (BBT), Capital One (COF), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Synovus (SNV). The analyst argues that valuations should benefit from perceived reductions in volatility as well as from a “Trump bump,” with expected changes to rates, taxation and loan growth potentially boosting average earnings per share by a fifth.
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