Asia Equity Markets: Solid Economic Growth Versus Political Risk

Asian economies have begun the year with continued solid – and in some cases robust –performance. Yet the major Asian stock markets have diverged, with some significantly outperforming and others underperforming. In this note we focus on Japan, China, and India.

As this note was written, President Trump announced his administration’s intention to impose tariffs on $450 billion of Chinese imports, lodge a WTO dispute against China, and impose restrictions on Chinese investments in the US. Global markets tumbled last Thursday and Friday as fears of a world trade war surged. We share those fears, regretting that the Trump administration had not done as US allies had urged and taken a less risky, multilateral approach, which would have had a better chance of success. Then China responded in a surprisingly moderate way, and over the weekend the US reported that positive talks with China were underway. Also, an important bilateral trade agreement was announced between the US and South Korea, covering steel, autos, and other areas. In addition the European Union, Brazil, and Argentina were exempted from the steel and aluminum tariffs, joining Canada, Mexico, and Australia in that regard. Global equity markets, including those in Asia, recovered since the weekend as fears of a trade war have receded. They then declined again, this time on concerns about the technology sector. We will be writing separately on global markets and trade developments.

While all the stock markets in Asia together do not reach the size of the US equity market, some of them are quite large. Using data provided by the World Federation of Exchanges for year-end 2016 domestic market capitalization (reported in millions of US dollars), China’s equity markets, at $7,311,460 million, are the region’s largest. Japan’s equity market is second largest, at $4,955,300 million. Hong Kong’s market, at $3,193,235 million, is third, with fourth place India being very close at $3,106,267 million. Fifth and sixth largest are Australia, at $1,268,494 million, and Taiwan, at $928,366 million. It is noteworthy that the aggregate capitalization of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan’s markets is about the same as the aggregate capitalization of all the European equity markets.

The Japanese economy has looked relatively robust in the first quarter, although the pace of improvement in business conditions appears to have moderated somewhat. In the manufacturing sector, output, new orders, and employment growth rates have all slowed. Looking ahead, firms are anticipating increased skill shortages in a very tight labor market. Yet according to the HIS Markit Japan Business Outlook for February, firms are optimistic about demand growth and profits and expect to increase their workforce numbers and capital expenditures. Despite some slowing in the first quarter, then, overall economic growth for the calendar year 2018, as measured by real GNP, could well surpass the 2017 pace, 1.8% versus 1.7%. While these growth rates look quite modest compared to those of many other advanced countries, they represent full-capacity growth for Japan, with its aging population. The forthcoming March Bank of Japan Tankan report should give further information as to whether business sentiment is becoming more negative.