Following today’s retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.
The difference between the forecasts is now a whopping 1.6 percentage points.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Latest forecast: 2.8 percent — May 13, 2016
“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on May 13, up from 2.2 percent on May 10. After this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent.”
New York Fed Nowcast
“The FRBNY Staff Nowcast for GDP growth in 2016:Q2 remains moderate at 1.2%.”
At least one of these is wildly off the mark.
Given the bond market’s reaction to today’s retail sales numbers, I suggest it’s more likely GDPNow missed the mark.
Bond Market Reaction
Bond yields rallied and gold was flat despite the fact the US dollar index rose 0.63%. Numbers as of 11:30 AM central.
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The bond market does not think much of today’s retail sales report, and neither do I.
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