AUD: How High Can The Currency Down Under Go?

The Australian dollar reached new highs and seems more confident above 0.80. Where next? Is the bull trend in tact?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

AUD/USD: Allow For S/T Selling Before Resuming Of Core Bull Trend: Levels & Targets – Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse FX Technical Strategy Research notes that AUD/USD has held uptrend and price support at .7866 before breaking above the July high of .8067 and settling around there.

“We allow for fresh selling here, but favor a break above to reinstate the core bull trend for .8163/67 initially, and eventually our core target of .8453/83,”

On the downside, CS argues that a removal of support .7866 would complete a small top to target .7807 en-route to the medium-term base at .7696.

AUD: Time To Price In RBA More Aggressive?; What’s The Trade? – Nordea

Nordea FX Strategy Research argues that an observation from historical patterns suggest that we should be warming up for a tightening of the stance from RBA.

“It is not rare to see RBA move in the aftermath of a turn from the Bank of Canada. Based on data from the last 40 years, RBA moves roughly 2-3 months after BoC on average. With recent solid employment signals from Australia, it could be time for the market to price RBA more aggressively for Q1-2018.

And as long as industrial metals see trend-wise tailwinds, AUD should be underpinned. Thus far AUD/USD has been undershooting the recent pick-up in industrial metals. At the moment we consider long AUD/JPY as the perfect “no nuclear wasteland” trade.