The August month-over-month import container counts are still suggesting an improving USA economy, but exports suggest a sluggish global economy.
Analyst Opinion of Container Movements
January was great. February was bad. March was good. April is ok. May and June were a mixed bag. The monthly data for July was good. The data for August is far from excellent.
Simply looking at this month versus last month – the growth rates degraded for both exports and imports.
Looking at the three month rolling averages this month shows improvement in imports which would indicate improving growth – with exports not only contracting YoY but also getting worse.
As imports are growing much faster than exports, the trade balance should worsen.
This data set is based on the Ports of LA and Long Beach which account for much (approximately 40%) of the container movement into and out of the United States – and these two ports report their data significantly earlier than other USA ports. Most of the manufactured goods move between countries in sea containers (except larger rolling items such as automobiles). This pulse point is an early indicator of the health of the economy.
Consider that imports final sales are added to GDP usually several months after import – while the import cost itself is subtracted from GDP in the month of import. Export final sales occur around the date of export. Container counts do not include bulk commodities such as oil or autos which are not shipped in containers. For this month:
As the data is very noisy – the best way to look at this data normally is the 3 month rolling averages. There is a direct linkage between imports and USA economic activity – and the change in growth in imports foretells real change in economic growth. Export growth is an indicator of competitiveness and global economic growth.
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