August 2018 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Eases

The Chicago Business Barometer declined but remains firmly in positive territory.

Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI

The results of this survey continue to correlate to district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys – and generally aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey.

Expectations this month from Nasdaq / Econoday were 61.0 to 65.0 (consensus 63.5) with the actual at 63.6. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer continues to signal solid business sentiment, despite easing for the first time in five months, with growth in output and demand holding up well. Inflationary pressures look set to continue, potentially bleeding into consumer prices, with over 60% of firms reporting that they have passed on higher input costs to customers in recent months, and others foreseeing doing so in the near future.

From ISM Chicago:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer slipped to a three-month low of 63.6 in August, down 1.9 points from July’s 65.5. Firms’ operations continued to grow at a healthy pace in August, despite decelerating for the first time in five months. A softening in Supplier Deliveries, Order Backlogs and Employment offset gains in Production and New Orders, driving the decline in the Barometer. However, it still sits 6.9% higher on the year and continues to signal robust business conditions. August saw both demand and output inch higher, though broadly unchanged from their already-elevated July levels. Despite registering only minor changes on the month, the New Orders indicator is up 6.4% on the year while the Production indicator posted a 9.1% y/y rise For firms not encountering a significant rise in orders, it offered the chance to catch up on existing, unfinished orders. The Order Backlogs indicator snapped a three-month winning run in August, receding from July’s nine-month high. Elevated demand, difficulty sourcing key materials and labor inefficiencies have forced unfinished orders higher in recent months.