August 2018 Conference Board Employment Index Strong Improvement

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months improved with the author’s saying “This supports our projections for strong economic growth in the coming year, suggesting that demand for labor is likely to remain strong“.

Analyst Opinion of Conference Board’s Employment Index

Econintersect evaluates the year-over-year change of this index (which is different than the headline view) – as we do with our own employment index. The year-over-year index growth rate accelerated 1.7 % month-over-month and 6.9 % year-over-year.

From the Conference Board:

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in August, after increasing in July. The index now stands at 110.88, up from 109.58 (a downward revision) in July. The change represents a 6.9 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index continues to accelerate, with this month’s year-over-year increase being the strongest since May 2012,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “This supports our projections for strong economic growth in the coming year, suggesting that demand for labor is likely to remain strong. To meet this demand, employers must draw more people back into the labor force, especially in blue-collar occupations, where the labor market is increasingly tight.”

August’s increase in the ETI was fueled by positive contributions from all eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, The Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Industrial Production, and Job Openings.