August 2018 Leading Economic Index Remains Pointing To Solid Growth

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S improved this month – and the authors say “The leading indicators are consistent with a solid growth scenario in the second half of 2018 and at this stage of a maturing business cycle in the US, it doesn’t get much better than this”.

Analyst Opinion of the Leading Economic Index

Because of the significant backward revisions, I do not trust this index.

This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The market (from Nasdaq/Econoday) expected this index’s month-over-month change at 0.3 % to 0.6 % (consensus 0.5 %) versus the +0.4 % reported.

ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is forecasting much more moderate growth over the next six months.

Additional comments from the economists at The Conference Board add context to the index’s behavior.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.4 percent in August to 111.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in July, and a 0.5 percent increase in June. The leading economic index is now well above its previous peak (March 2006, 102.4).

“The leading indicators are consistent with a solid growth scenario in the second half of 2018 and at this stage of a maturing business cycle in the US, it doesn’t get much better than this,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The US LEI’s growth trend has moderated since the start of the year. Industrial companies that are more sensitive to the business cycle should be on the lookout for a possible moderation in economic growth in 2019. The strengths among the LEI’s components were very widespread, further supporting an outlook of above 3.0 percent growth for the remainder of 2018.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in August to 104.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in July, and a 0.3 percent increase in June.