Australian Dollar (Futures) Rally?

Just so there is no confusion, this analysis is based on the December 2017 Australian Dollar futures contract.  While the FOREX AUD/USD and the AD futures contract pretty much moves in tandem, they’re not exact so when doubt refer to the actual futures contract price data.

The Australian Dollar has been in decline since making a significant top on September 8, 2017. During this decline, it managed a brief 2-day rally from Sept 18 to 20, a 5-day rally from Oct 6 to 13, and Oct 27 to Nov 2.

This analysis is mostly based on two significant indications: FDates and Dynamic Cycles.  Other indicators (common tools, like Stochastic, MACD, etc.) support the conclusion I’m going to provide here, but are not necessarily signalling a reversal or trend change because such common indicators can remain in their depressed state (oversold) for extended periods beyond the initial crossing up of their respective signal lines.  Thus is why I’ve come to appreciate the “heads-up” I get from Dynamic Cycle analysis along with FDate swing turn date alerts.

When a turn date is indicated by a ‘daily’ FDate, I will expect some kind of a reversal but won’t necessarily get excited about it. The reason being is that we’re dealing with the ‘daily’ short-term time-frame and these turns occur frequently due to its short time-frame.

On the other hand, when a ‘weekly’ FDate is in play, the ‘daily’ FDate within its time window becomes more interesting, and thus warrants looking at supporting indications/signals to pinpoint the most probable time a reversal of some importance is likely.

In the Australian Dollar, we have such a scenario right now.

For instance, the ‘weekly’ time-frame price chart shows the current weekly low has occurred within the ‘weekly’ OS zone. The OB/OS (overbought/oversold) zones within the Previsions Charting software have historically proven quite reliable in anticipating a change of trend direction relative to the time-frame being analyzed. As long as price has not recently moved into and out of the zone in question, the indication is strong. If price instead was recently in that particular zone (in this case the OS zone) and after turning the trend around briefly sees price shortly return without having first reached the opposite extreme (the OB zone), the indication becomes very weak or unreliable.