More big earnings misses from big oil and a global currency reversal of fortunes has oil giving back early, overnight gains. Suddenly the dollar is stronger as a Fed official says that an interest rate increase is on the table. And in Europe turmoil over Scotland voting on whether to trigger the mechanism to leave the European Union and a spike in Greek bond yields muddies the water. This turmoil comes as BP and Total report big fourth quarter misses on earnings that will reduce those company’s ability to invest in long term projects making the increases in U.S. shale oil rigs and rising U.S. oil output seem less significant.
Oil products are weak as demand fears are weighing down the market, awaiting a time when supply is at historically high levels. Gas demand is at a 6 year low as bad weather in California has given a hit to demand and warm temperatures elsewhere in the country is reducing heating oil demand. This comes as refining margins for big oil companies are reducing the positive impact from OPEC inspired oil price increases.
BP Plc on Tuesday reported fourth-quarter earnings came in at 13 cents per share, a miss of 3 cents a share from estimates. The big problem for BP was a drop-in refining margins that previously shielded big oil companies from falling oil prices. Yet refining is a drag on earnings even as revenue was higher. Stronger demand for products with less of a profit margin will make it tough for the company to talk about an increase in capital spending. BP said it will reduce capital investment to between $16 billion and $17 billion this year, down from $19.5 billion in 2015. The company also will sell $5.5 billion of assets this year, up from $3.2 billion in 2016.
Phillip 66 also missed yesterday as total adjusted net income of $83 million fell 88% as its refining unit had adjusted loss of $95 million. Royal Dutch Shell is selling $5 billion dollars of assets to cut debt as it reported its lowest full-year earnings in more than a decade.
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