Bill Gross’ Latest: “Mainstream America Is Being Slowly Cooked Alive”

While hardly as dramatic as Bill Gross’ last letter in which he urged readers to “go to cash” as a result of the “Frankenstein creation” that ZIRP has created, his latest letter “Saved by Zero” takes a calmer stance and taking a page out of Paul Marshall’s FT Op-Ed profiled yesterday, urges central banks to “get off zero” as the “developed world is beginning to run on empty because investments discounted at near zero over the intermediate future cannot provide cash flow or necessary capital gains to pay for past promises in an aging society. And don’t think that those poor insurance companies and gargantuan pension funds in the hundreds of billions are the only losers.

His punchline:

“Mainstream America with their 401Ks are in a similar pickle. Expecting 8-10% to pay for education, healthcare, retirement or simply taking an accustomed vacation, they won’t be doing much of it as long as short term yields are at zero. They are not so much in a pickle barrel as they are on a revolving spit, being slowly cooked alive while central bankers focus on their Taylor models and fight non-existent inflation.”

We are not so sure about that non-existant inflation: sure, if one ignores healthcare, food, tuition and expecially rental costs, then sure. But let that slide for the time being.

Gross’ conclusion: “get off zero and get off quick. Will 2% Fed Funds harm corporate America that has already termed out its debt? A little. Will stock and bond prices go down? Most certainly. But like Volcker recognized in 1979, the time has come for a new thesis that restores the savings function to developed economies that permit liability based business models to survive – if only on a shoestring – and that ultimately leads to rejuvenated private investment, which is the essence of a healthy economy. Near term pain? Yes. Long term gain? Almost certainly. Get off zero now!”