Bitcoin Daily Forecast – Tuesday, August 14

BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to struggle overall, although we did gain 0.85% at the time of writing. Unfortunately, the market has not broken above a substantial resistance barrier, and in fact gave back quite a bit of gains for the day. It’s obvious to me that the $6000 level is a major barrier in this market, but one thing I would point out is the lack of volume. I don’t think there’s much in the way of strong interest in this market, and the recent rallies that we had seen were based mainly upon rumors about ETFs. I find that a bit ironic, as bitcoin was originally thought of as an alternative to traditional financing. It turns out that the one thing that could save it was going to be the idea of it being available to trade on Wall Street.

I believe that a daily close below the $6000 level will open the road to the $5000 handle, which could be even more supportive. When you look at the chart, there’s really no other way to put it rather than we have a series of “lower highs”, which is the very essence of a downtrend. Yes, I recognize that there is the argument that if you had bought this two years ago, you are still very much in profit, but how many of you would be comfortable watching value go from $100 to the $20,000 level, only to turn around and drop back to $6000? I don’t buy that argument, although it’s the one that the “true believers” tend to site.

Overall, I think that this market will continue to be negative, so what I like to do a short bitcoin every time I get an opportunity. I believe that the floodgates will open if we break down below the round number.