Liftoff: Bitcoin futures are up and trading.
Given the huge buzz around the cryptocurrency, its first day was surprisingly tame – at least by Bitcoin standards.
Futures rocketed 20% at open before dropping back beneath $18,000. That’s still nicely above the $16,649 mark Bitcoin was sitting at midday yesterday, but you’ve got to remember, Bitcoin’s up more than 66% since Dec. 1. Reuters‘ “Breakingviews” noted futures volume was around $50 million, just 0.5% of the volume of actual bitcoins in the prior 24 hours.
Now, it’s possible lots of would-be traders were sitting out the first day, pulling a “wait-and-see” on possible expensive glitches.
But then again, the first day doesn’t matter much. I think Bitcoin futures will be big – much bigger than they are now.
I’m not trading just yet. It’s a little dangerous for my taste, but I will eventually.
And I’m going to do it in this very specific, high-profit way that I’m going to show you right now.
How Bitcoin Could Bring Us the Biggest Gold Play Ever Made
Here’s how I’ll play the game…
If the futures market is trustworthy, I’ll play there. I won’t buy Bitcoin, ever, because I don’t trust it. If I buy Bitcoin and the price collapses, I may never be able to sell them at any reasonable price, or at all.
Just saying.
However, I’ll put up 30% margin at the CBOE or 35% margin at the CME and trade the futures, even though I know there’s no guarantee I’ll be safe playing there.
You see, there I might be able to get out using stop orders, or get out after halts, or maybe not get out and just watch my trades make me a fortune.
Based on how high Bitcoin has moved, I’d be tempted to buy futures. But based on the potential for disaster in terms of trading halts and price discrepancies in the cash market, I’d be tempted to short futures and bet on a price collapse.
I’d rather play Bitcoin both ways, and I can do that by buying straddles in the Bitcoin options market. I’ll tell you how to do that next week.
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