Is Bitcoin in bubble territory? Certainly, the price pattern this year looks like an exponential one, at least locally, but there are also opposing views. In an article on CNBC, we read:
[William] Bernstein is a neurologist who began writing about investing in the 1990s, soon becoming a best-selling author and drawing the admiration of legends such as Vanguard’s Jack Bogle for his clear and rational analysis. He is best known for books such as “The Intelligent Asset Allocator” and “The Four Pillars of Investing” that show independent investors how to manage their money for the long term. He is currently retired as a doctor, but co-principal at Efficient Frontier Advisors, a money management firm for the very wealthy.
“Bitcoin is not something I want to waste my time on,” Bernstein told CNBC. “Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don’t invest in things [you] don’t understand.”
(…)
(…) bitcoin doesn’t quite fulfill all four criteria of a bubble, Bernstein said.
First, the digital currency hasn’t yet become the primary topic of social gatherings, he told CNBC.
And second, most people aren’t quitting well-paying jobs to speculate in bitcoin.
Also, skeptics of bitcoin aren’t yet met with anger.
The only sign of bitcoin being in a bubble that Bernstein can see is some “whiffs” of extreme price predictions.
This is a different perspective on the Bitcoin market from what we usually see on mainstream media. The default two modes seem to be either that Bitcoin is an extreme opportunity or that it is a bubble. Actually, these are not mutually exclusive clauses. Bernstein presents a view based on the analysis of past market manias and he seems to be using periods akin to the dot-com bubble as the yardstick. The main takeaway from this should be that while Bitcoin’s rise has been meteoric and the past price action certainly looks like one in a bubble, there’s no telling when the move up stops and, as such, Bitcoin might still have a long way to go.
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