Brexit To The West And Polexit To The East?

There is not much the EU could have done to keep the UK in its club. Former Prime Minister Cameron tried sought some concessions, but the importance assigned to immigration and regaining sovereignty by the Brexit camp and British media meant that there was no politically realistic concession that the EU could have made to appease those favoring to leave the EU.

Much of the UK’s frustrations grow out of the success of its own strategy. It sought a broad union instead of a deepening union. The broadening of the union means that over time, decisions could not be made on the basis of unanimity. That simply was not an efficient governing principle as the bloc got bigger.  

Nor could the EU do anything about the terms of the referendum. It was offered as a non-binding resolution. There was bait-and-switch.  Cameron made the referendum binding, and although May deviated from several of his initiatives, she could not bring herself (or the country) to do re-think the results of the referendum. The EU (and others) can rightly be surprised that the UK would make such a momentous decision on the basis of such a narrow vote.  

Indeed, 18-months on from the referendum, some polls show the “Remain” camp has moved into the lead. This is understandable, as the “Brexit” camp oversold the benefits and minimized the costs, which are becoming clearer as the divorce talks proceed.  

Brexit changes the balance of power in the EU. The UK gave voice to those members of the EU that were not members of EMU.  It often articulated th interests of those who chafed under what was perceived as a growing super-state of largely unelected EU Commissioners based in Brussels.  

The EU’s challenge in eastern and central Europe is not caused by Brexit, but the UK’s exit exacerbates it. At issue is the adherence to EU rules and the price of non-compliance. Immigration is a particularly divisive issue in the EU. It seems to be among the most important issues in the Brexit drive. It appears to have been a critical issue in other European elections, including Austria and the Netherlands this year.  It also was a salient issue in last year’s US election.