03/07 Tuesday | 03:30 GMT | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
Slipping below 0.76 cents versus the US Dollar on Friday, the Australian Dollar had weakened ahead of the Reserve Bank’s March 3 rate decision. The move does not likely reflect market expectations: there is a 0% chance of a rate cut on Tuesday, and only a 0.7% chance of a rate hike, according to overnight index swaps. Put simply, a bevy of mixed inflation, growth, trade, and employment data will likely keep the RBA sidelined for the better part of, if not all of, 2017: by December, there is still less than a 1-in-3 chance of a rate move, according to rates markets.
Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD
03/09 Thursday | 01:30 GMT | CNY Consumer Price Index (FEB)
Chinese consumer prices rose by +2.5% (year-on-year) in January, the fastest rate since May 2014. The print also beat expectations of a +2.4% rise and December’s reading of +2.1%. January’s boost was driven by a +2.7% rise in foods while non-food prices rose by +2.5%. While January’s uptick in inflation looks strong, the official Chinese statistics agency noted that prices were probably boosted by a boost in output ahead of the two-week Lunar New Year holiday. As such, market watchers are looking for a decline in headline inflation in February, with the headline reading due in at +1.8%, which would represent a dramatic stepdown.
Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, USD/CNH
03/09 Thursday | 12:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision
While the European Central Bank will be releasing new staff economic projections (SEPs) due on Thursday, the scope for the ECB to act at this meeting, one way or the other, seems very limited. To be fair, economic data has been improving steadily in recent weeks, beyond consensus expectations by a wide margin. The Euro-Zone Citi Economic Surprise Index finished last week at +70.0, up from +55.9 a month earlier. On the other hand, despite the German and Euro-Zone CPIs running through +2%, the 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, one of President Draghi’s favorite measures of inflation, have slipped back the past month, finishing at 1.705% at the end of last week from 1.774% four-weeks ago.
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