CAD Soars As BOC Imply Rate Raise In Consideration

BOC’s Message Is Shifting

The BOC’s message has shifted somewhat over recent months, and last night, Deputy Governor Wilkins moved the needle even further by suggesting that the bank will now consider whether current low rates are still required. After the May 24^th BOC meeting, it seemed that the bank’s message was turning more CAD-supportive and these latest comments, which came as part of an “economic update” appear to lay the groundwork for a tightening in Canadian monetary policy ahead of market expectations.

At its meeting last month, the BOC altered its statement somewhat to say that “the current degree of monetary stimulus is appropriate at present”. The previous version said that “the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate”. In these latest comments, DG Wilkins said that “the governing council will be assessing whether all of the considerable monetary policy stimulus presently in place is still required”.

Economy Growing Well

Wilkins also sounded rather optimistic about the overall economic environment with growth broadening and the economy adjusting to lower oil. Indeed, Wilkins said that Q1 growth had been “pretty impressive” and that “what is encouraging is that this growth is not being driven by just a few key industries…The data show that more than 70 percent of industries have been expanding – a rate we have not seen since the oil price shock. That is the kind of diversity that helps support strong and sustained overall growth.”

Annualised growth now sits at 3.7%, marking a strong move higher from the prior 2.7% reading.

Regarding inflation, the Deputy Governor noted that the measure still remains below the bank’s target but added that the BOC needs to focus on the future evolution of growth and not only the present environment saying that “Monetary policy actions influence financial conditions and economic decisions right away but can take as long as two years to have their full effect on inflation.”