The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) year-over-year rate of home price growth slowed from 6.4 % to 6.3 %. The index authors stated “The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility.”

Analyst Opinion of Case-Shiller HPI

Many pundits believe home prices are back in a bubble. Maybe, but the falling inventory of homes for sale keeps home prices relatively high. I continue to see this a situation of supply and demand. It is the affordability of the homes which is becoming an issue for the lower segments of consumers.

  • 20 city unadjusted home price rate of growth slowed 0.1 % month-over-month. [Econintersect uses the change in year-over-year growth from month-to-month to calculate the change in rate of growth]
  • Note that Case-Shiller index is an average of the last three months of data.
  • The market expected:
    •   Consensus Range Consensus Actual 20-city, SA – M/M 0.5 % to 0.7 % 0.7 % +0.6 % 20-city, NSA – M/M 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.1 % +0.2 % 20-city, NSA – Yr/Yr 6.2 % to 6.6 % 6.3 % +6.3 %

    S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Year-over-Year Change

    Comparing all the home price indices, it needs to be understood each of the indices uses a unique methodology in compiling their index – and no index is perfect.

    The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change. Here home price growth generally appears to be stabilize (rate of growth not rising or falling).

    There are some differences between the indices on the rate of “recovery” of home prices.

    A synopsis of Authors of the Leading Indices:

    Case Shiller’s David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices:

    Print Friendly, PDF & Email

    Related Posts