By Michael Noonan (EdgeTraderPlus.com)
There does not appear to be any hint of a change in the ongoing downside pressure for gold and silver.
Gold – Monthly Nearest OHLC Chart
…Confirmation of a change in trend will only come after a higher high above 1300 from 2016, as seen in this weekly chart below. Since the month and a half decline at the end of 2016, it has been seven months of rally effort that has been unable to retrace the entire decline. This is a sign of a weak market, and supports the weakness found in the Qtrly and monthly charts.
Gold Chart: July 2014 – July 2017
Gold Chart: Daily
We made chart comments on the daily, but the overriding factor is the existence of an ongoing TR [trading range], and the level of knowledge is weakest when price is in a TR because rallies fail and declines hold within the range. Nothing much in the way of encouragement to see here.
Silver Chart: July 2004 – July 2017
Silver remains the weaker PM. The gold:silver ratio, having reached 66:1, is now back to around 75:1, indicating a poorer performance in silver relative to gold. From the 2011 high to the 2015 low, silver continues to languish nearer the lows, unable to mount a stronger retracement off those lows. As in gold, there is no evidence of any positive change for this market.
The only interesting aspect of silver is the volume behavior. In the past few months, downside volume has been way above average, yet there has been no giving way of the December 2016 low. In a truly weak market, the December low should not have held. Our conclusion is that we are seeing the possibility of strong money [central banks] covering shorts, which is a form of buying. The negative volume not giving way is a possible reading of what smart money is doing while trying to hide their plan(s). Price and volume are facts. They do not lie, but they can be misconstrued, which may be the case, as described, and a subtle bullish point of view.
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