One month ago, the Chicago PMI soared, printing at 56.2, far above the highest estimate. It was not meant to be, and printing moments ago at 48.7, a mirror image of last month, as this time it printed below the lowest estimate of 49, with consensus expected a 54.0 print.

And the sellside proving it is useless once again: here are the October and November forecasts and the actual print.

Confirming that that US is indeed in a manufacturing recession is the starting fact that the PMI has been below 50 (shrinking) for more months in 2015 (6) than it has been above this expansionary threshold.

The weakness was broad based, with New Orders (down 15.3), Prices Paid, Production, and Inventories all falling. There was some good news as Supplier Deliveries, Employment and Order Backlogs posted modest increases.

Here is the breakdown from MarketNews:

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