For the 3rd straight month, Chicago Purchasing Managers are losing their religion as the business barometer is battered to 12-month lows(with the biggest drop in three years).

Chicago PMI printed a gravely disappointing 57.4 in March (against expectations of a rise to 62.0 from February’s 61.9 print)…

This is below the lowest analyst’s estimate… (Forecast range 59 – 66 from 30 economists surveyed)

Only 4 components rose versus last month

  • Business barometer rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Inventories rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Production rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Order backlogs rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Business activity has been positive for 12 months over the past year.

  • Thus, Chicago PMI confirms our earlier note that stagflationary indicators are flashing red (as production and new orders slow but prices paid surge)