China And Taiwan – Apocalypse Now?

by John West, Asian Century Institute

The Presidency of Tsai Ing-wen, which began officially following her inauguration on 20 May, promises even more “interesting times” in relations across the Taiwan Strait.

Tsai Ing-wen won Taiwan’s presidential elections on 16 January 2016 as a representative of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

China’s communist government has always had a deep allergy to the DPP. It regards Taiwan as a renegade province which must be reunified with the mainland under the banner of its “one-China policy“.

Beijing has long threatened military intervention should Taiwan seek to declare independence. It has also applied great pressure on the international community to accept its one-China policy.

This means that Taiwan has formal diplomatic relations with very few countries (22 small, poor countries at last count), and is shut out of most international organisations and free trade agreements.

Between 2008 and 2016, a history of testy relations between Beijing and Taipei gave way to a “golden age” under the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) party.

Many official agreements were signed. Trade and investment boomed, as did the number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan.

A key to this golden age was Taiwan’s acceptance of the “1992 Consensus” by which both sides commit to the principle of one China, even if they may interpret that principle differently.

Young people wary of Beijing

The victory of Tsai Ing-wen was a defiance of Beijing’s playbook. Taiwan’s citizens should have appreciated the benefits of closer economic and person-to-person linkages under the KMT.

But in reality, Taiwan’s citizens, especially its youth, were frustrated with the country’s weak economy, poor job prospects, and rising inequality under the KMT, and were also very wary about China’s undue influence on Taiwan.

The vast majority of Taiwanese citizens now feel a greater attachment to their distinct Taiwanese identity rather than to a Chinese identity.