China Shadow Looms Over Q4 Earnings

Another day and another China-centered overnight sell-off that weighs on U.S. stocks at the open. This comes after Thursday’s stock market rebound that appeared to indicate that the worst could be behind us. But this morning’s fresh downturn in Chinese stocks and oil prices shows that the 2016 sell-off still has room to go.

Chinese stocks ended their Friday session -3.6% lower, pushing the Shanghai Composite index 20% below its December 2015 high and its lowest level since 2014. The catalyst for today’s sell-off was the December bank loan report that showed a bigger-than-expected decline in loan demand from the month before.

There were also unconfirmed reports that Chinese banks have stopped accepting stocks as a collateral for loans. The market’s reaction to the monthly bank loan report isn’t so much a reflection of the top-tier status of the economic reading — which it isn’t — but rather a function of how fragile sentiment is currently. Nervous and jittery Chinese investors are fleeing at the first sign of trouble, and the rest of the world is following them.

The China and associated global growth worries are very much present in Q4 earnings reports as well. The weak Intel (INTC) report on Thursday and this morning’s soft reading from industrial-components supplier Fastenal (FAST) are directly or indirectly a function of this uncertain macro backdrop. Even J.P. Morgan’s (JPM) strong report cautioned about the impact of the weak global cross-currents on the U.S. economy, which seems to be showing up in this morning’s soft December Retail Sales reading seems to corroborate.

The Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) earnings reports this morning follow the pattern set by J.P. Morgan; they aren’t as strong as the J.P. Morgan report was, but are nevertheless better than expected. The Q4 reporting cycle gains pace next week with 40 S&P 500 members coming out with results.