China Trade Balance Surges As Exports Surprise To The Upside

Mission Accomplished? It’s a modern monetary miracle – China’s trade surplus surged to CNY382bn (from 434bn), dramatically higher than the expected drop to 338bn thanks to better than expected data for imports and exports. Imports dropped 4.0% (less than the 7.9% drop expected) and the smallest decline since December 2014 but it was exports that “proved” China’s policymakers are large and in charge. For the first time since February 2015, China exports rose year-over-year (by 2.3%) dramatically better than the 4.1% plunge expected.

Everything is awesome again!!

So – no need for more policy support… despite earlier comments from officials of export policy support?

Offshore Yuan is rallying modestly on this news…

Now we look forward to all of China’s trading partners report how their exports also rose this month (leaving some magical off-Earth entity making up the “difference”).

And finally – not wanting to pour cold water on the celebrations, we note that it is crucial to understand this is the extremely seasonal period leading up to Chinese New Year and is most likely an outlier… but for now, everything is awesome.