Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc And The Long Road Back

While a friend was in the hospital recently I took her son over to Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG).

Our local outlet near Atlanta is no longer as crowded as it once was, but it was busy at lunch time. We were both able to get a good, filling meal for about $10, including a drink, within 10 minutes of our arrival. We left happy.

Chipotle’s problems with e.Coli bacteria last year, however, demonstrated that there is a risk to fresh food. In the near term McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) has been a big beneficiary, and Chipotle has lost nearly 30% of its value. But its March quarter was probably a bottom, and sales then were just 15% below where they were a year earlier, with the company reporting a loss of $26.4 million, 88 cents per share, on sales of $834 million.

The June quarter, due to be reported July 27, will demonstrate whether this is a V-shaped bottom, as analysts currently expect, or a more long-lasting problem. Analysts are expecting revenues of  $1.13 billion and a profit of close to $35 million, or $1.06 per share. My own guess is you’re looking at $950 million in revenue, running at break-even.

That failure doesn’t mean you give up on the company, however. The road back has started. It’s just going to be longer, and slower, than investors now anticipate. Expectations need to be tempered with reality. It will take time to achieve last June’s $140 million, $4.05 per share, earnings on revenue of $1.2 billion. Based on what I saw in my recent visit, I think you’re going to see a miss, and another hard fall in the stock price, because it’s currently fully valued with a Price/Earnings multiple over 46.

Once that happens, consider buying.