Citigroup’s crack trio of credit analysts, Matt King, Stephen Antczak, and Hans Lorenzen, best known for their relentless, Austrian, at times “Zero Hedge-esque” attacks on the Fed, and persistent accusations  that central banks distort markets, all summarized best in the following Citi chart, have come out of hibernation to discuss what comes next for various asset classes in the context of the upcoming paradigm shift in central bank posture.

In a note released by the group’s credit team on March 27, Lorenzen writes that credit’s “infatuation with equities is coming to an end.”

Understandable: after all, as the FOMC Minutes revealed last week, even the Fed now openly admits its policy is directly in response to stock prices.

As the credit economist points out,”statistically, over the last couple of years both markets have been influencing (“Granger causing”) each other. But considering the relative size, depth and liquidity of (not to mention the resources dedicated to) the equity market, we’d argue that more often than not, the asset class taking the passenger seat is credit. Yet the relationship was not always so cozy. Over the long run, the correlation in recent years is actually unusual. In the two decades before the Great Financial Crisis, three-month correlations between US credit returns and the S&P 500 returns tended to oscillate sharply and only barely managed to stay positive over the long run (Figure 3).”

What is the reason for this dramatic pick up in cross-correlations? A familiar one, of course (see the top chart): “Much of the correlation not just between these two, but also with many other asset classes seems closely associated with the ongoing central bank balance sheet expansion.”

However, now that global central banks are entering the tightening phase, and as the balance sheet slows, “or even begins to reverse over the coming quarters, we expect the negative impact on credit will be more than proportionate.”

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Related Posts