Crude Crashes Abruptly

We just hit technical levels that were a bridge too far at this stage.

That’s from Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank and he imagines that largely explains this:

One-minute volume on Brent jumped to ~2.8k lots at 9:52am in London and WTI dropped by a similar amount on one minute volume of 4.6k lots. We’re blaming that on Brent not being able to push above $50.

“News has not been supportive, OPEC and Russia not contemplating any additional steps to cut,” the above-mentioned Ole Hansen said. “The failure to push through $50/bbl was likely most significant driver.”

I see.

Well whatever the case, it comes on the heels of oil slamming on the brakes after its longest run of gains this year (for Brent the longest run since 2012), a run which itself followed crude’s collapse into bear market territory last month. Between news that OPEC production rose to its highest this year in June and Russia refusing to back any proposal for deeper production cuts, the tone has turned bearish again.

“The environment at the moment isn’t conducive for prices to extend the rally,” says Daniel Hynes, Sydney-based analyst at ANZ. “Supply dynamics are against the market. It’ll probably be a bit of a wait-and-see period to evaluate the impact of sub-$50 oil”

Don’t tell Citi: OIL GAINS MARK START OF `SUSTAINABLE RALLY’: CITIGROUP

Meanwhile, Yuji Saito, executive director at Credit Agricole’s foreign exchange department figures the fact that there isn’t an all-out nuclear war going on yet is as good a reason as any to fade any “transient” safe-haven bid.

“The firing of ICBM was something new for the market to absorb and the fact that Tillerson confirmed this heightened tensions, but this doesn’t mean both countries will head into war,” Saito said overnight.