Crude Oil Price Gains On OPEC Cut Extension Hopes May Unravel

Crude oil prices rose as Saudi and UAE officials said participants in the OPEC-led production cut scheme agree that it should be extended. Kuwaiti oil minister Issam Almarzooq echoed the sentiment, saying he expects details of the updated effort to be announced at the cartel’s November 30 meeting. Iraq’s oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi joined the chorus as well, saying his country would back a 9-month extension.

Russia poured a bit of cold water on exuberant speculation however. Energy minister Alexander Novak saying it is hard to decide if an extension is appropriate so long before the expiration of the current effort in March 2018. That may undermine follow-through potential in near term. On the data front, the Baker Hughes rig count report as well as ICE and CFTC futures positioning statistics are due before the week-end.

Gold prices seesawed in familiar territory but ultimately managed a small gain as doubts about the viability of a Republican tax reform initiative. Markets have wagered that the proposed tax cuts will be inflationary and force the Fed into a steeper rate hike cycle. The US Dollar fell against almost all of its major counterparts (with the British Pound being a notable exception), boosting anti-fiat alternatives.

The spotlight now turns to October’s US employment data. The economy is expected to have added a hefty 313k jobs last month as hurricane-related disruptions that produced a shock 33k payrolls drop in September dissipate. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.2 percent while wage inflation cools a bit, registering at 2.7 percent on-year having hit an eight year high at 2.9 percent in the prior month.

The Fed’s case for continuing to gradually pull back on monetary stimulus rests on the premise the hurricane season will not derail growth in a lasting way while transitory forces holding back price growth continue to fade. Faith in that narrative ought to hold up absent a major disappointment, capping gold price gains. An upside surprise echoing recent US data flow might even rekindle dormant selling pressure.