Crude Oil Prices Capitalize Amid Exodus From Trump Trade

Crude oil prices erased losses suffered after an unexpectedly large weekly inventory increase as a timid FOMC policy announcement punished the US Dollar, offering a lift to the USD-denominated WTI benchmark. An EIA report showed stockpiles added 6.47 million barrels last week, more than twice the build expected (2.55 million barrels).

Oil was on the upswing ahead of the day’s scheduled event risk, however. That might have reflected a combination of geopolitical factors pointing to a generally US friendlier posture toward the fossil fuel industry. The House of Representatives voted to rescind a rule that forced producers to disclose payments to foreign governments and former Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson was confirmed as the next Secretary of State.

Gold prices erased intraday losses after the Fed statement crossed the wires. The metal corrected lower from a weekly high as the greenback attempted a pre-FOMC recovery but sellers threw in the towel after Janet Yellen and company said they see near-term risks to the economic outlook as “roughly balanced” and expect “only gradual increases” in the baseline lending rate.

The next big inflection point comes on Friday’s by way of US labor-market data. In the meantime, a lull in top-tier news flow is likely to put sentiment trends at the forefront. Risk appetite soured in Asian trade, most European bourses are following suit and S&P 500 futures are pointing decidedly lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street.

On balance, this looks like a recipe for gold to continue to climb as traders read the Fed’s timid tone as reinforcing the logic behind the unwinding of the so-called “Trump trade” since the beginning of the year. The impact on crude oil prices may be a bit muddled but the path of least resistance may favor gains in the near term as US Dollar selling continues to offer de-facto support.