Fundamental Forecast for Oil: Neutral

  • Inventory data supports US crude oil but market nears a congested area.
  • Further US intervention in Syria may limit any downside, while the monthly OPEC report mid-week may provide more market colour.

    • US crude oil continues its push higher, hitting a one-month high, as traders fear that supply may be affected after the recent US air strikes on Syria. But further upside may prove tricky as crude enters a congested trading zone between $52 and $55 a barrel.

    The upwards channel in crude remains intact as long as crude closes above $51.20/brl Friday. On the upside, bulls will be looking at the March 7 high of $54.08/brl.

    Chart: US Crude Oil Daily Timeframe (December 13, 2016 – April 7, 2017)

    Chart by IG

    The oil market also faces a couple of important data releases next week which could push the market if tensions in Syria ease. The monthly OPEC report is released on Wednesday April 12, providing traders with a detailed analysis of key developments in world oil demand, supply and the closely watched oil market balance. The US EIA crude oil inventories are also released on Wednesday, ahead of the IEA oil market report on Thursday and the Baker Hughes oil rig count on Friday April 14.

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