Cutout paper illustration representing scheme and Stocks inscriptionImage Source: Pexels
 Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Friday, buoyed by the positive sentiment from Wall Street’s overnight performance. Stronger-than-expected US retail sales and weekly jobless claims data have helped alleviate concerns about a recession in the world’s largest economy. However, this positive data is likely to prompt the US Federal Reserve to implement a smaller interest rate cut in September. The Japanese stock market is trading significantly higher on Friday, building on the gains from the previous four sessions. The benchmark Nikkei 225 is soaring, rising above the 38K handle, with gains seen across all sectors, led by index heavyweights and financial and technology stocks.The UK consumer returned to the high street in July thanks to a brief break from what felt like constant rain; sales increased by +0.5% m/m (median +0.6%) from an upwardly revised -0.8% m/m in June (from -1.2%). Eliminating fuel causes the statistics to increase to +0.7% m/m from the previous revision of -1.3% (up from -1.5%). Sales excluding gasoline are therefore +1.4% year over year. Sales at department stores had the biggest increase, rising by +4.0% m/m, while sales at other non-food stores increased by 2.5% m/m. Sales of food remained unchanged, but those of apparel and home items were down by -0.6% month over month, and sales of gasoline for automobiles decreased by 1.9% as compared to June. As a result, there are still areas of weakness, and it will be some time before we can talk about consumer strength. In fact, overall sales volumes remain lower than they were at the beginning of 2019 (-0.8%), and the fall appears even more pronounced (-4.3%) when looking at sales volumes per capita. Retailers appear to anticipate these conditions to persist, based on survey data. The main reason for the BoE’s ongoing inflation issue is that consumer preferences, services activity, and confidence have all increased. In actuality, that comes first when it comes to retail sales numbers (barring obvious weakness).Stateside the key data release for the day will be the University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment preliminary reading (August) – 55.1. Rounding out the week out will be Fed’s Goolsbee, who speaks later
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • RBNZ Rate-Cut Path Could Change On Price, Wage Setting
  • RBA’s Michele Bullock: Premature’ To Think About Rate Cuts
  • Fed Chair Powell To Headline Next Week’s Jackson Hole Meet
  • UK Government Woos Revolut For Potential IPO
  • Donald Trump’s Economic Plans Would Hurt US Business
  • Walz And Vance Agree To October US VP Debate
  • Carry Trade That Blew Up Markets Attracts Hedge Funds Again
  • Aussie Holds Higher Ground Above 0.6600, Hawkish RBA
  • Kiwi Trades With Mild Losses On Dovish RBNZ
  • Loonie Gives Back Some Recent Gains After Weak CAD Data
  • Gold ETF Inflows Reach 2-Year High, Possible US Rate Cut
  • Oil Rises 2% On Upbeat US Data, Geopolitical Tension
  • US EIA: China’s Diesel Demand Fell In June
  • Asian Stocks Rally As Fears Of US Recession Recede
  • Google’s Antitrust Defeat Could Shape AI Markets
  • Nvidia Vs Startups: AI Chip Challengers Chase Efficiency
  • Citadel, DE Shaw Slashed Nvidia Holdings Ahead Of MKT Rout
  • Softbank, SK, LG, And Hanwha To Join Asia-focused AI Fund
  • Stellantis Shareholders Sue Automaker Over Misinformation
  • Fmr Israeli-US Ambassador Questions Hamas Deal Readiness
  • Ukraine’s Incursion Disrupts Putin’s War Conquest

    •           (Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
     FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0900-10 (1.5BLN), 1.0950-60 (2.5BLN), 1.1000 (2.7BLN)
  • 1.1025 (1.1BLN), 1.1040-50 (788M)
  • USD/CHF: 0.8700 (758M), 0.8720 (677M)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (590M)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2785 (414M), 1.2820-25 (311M), 1.2880 (562M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6520 (919M), 0.6550-60 (1BLN), 0.6600 (921M)
  • USD/CAD: 1.3670-75 (1BLN), 1.3700 (1BLN), 1.3790-95 (944M)
  • USDJPY: 148.00 (658M), 150.00 (454M)
  • Early in August, carry trades were unwound due to risk aversion brought on by fears of a U.S. recession. As a result, the implied volatility of FX options increased significantly. The revelation of robust retail sales and in-line CPI statistics for the United States, however, allayed these anxieties and revived anticipation of a soft U.S. landing, allowing risk assets to recover. Since then, the implied volatility of FX options has dropped back to previous lows. Prior to the September nonfarm payrolls and Fed meeting, there will not be much noteworthy U.S. data, so this should control FX volatility, support risk assets, and maintain pressure on option premiums.
     

    • CFTC Data As Of 09/8/24

  • Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 25,312 contracts to 222,856
  • Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 57,309 contracts to 881,533
  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -22,073 contracts
  • British pound net long position is 74,399 contracts
  • Euro net long position is 33,580 contracts
  • Japanese yen net short position is -11,354 contracts
  • Bitcoin net long position is 538 contracts
     

    • Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5475

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Above 5470 opens 5670
  • Primary resistance 5670
  • Primary objective is 5000

    • EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Above 1.0975 opens 1.1058
  • Primary resistance 1.0981
  • The primary objective is 1.07

    • GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.29

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Below 1.2670 opens 1.2450
  • Primary support is 1.2690
  • Primary objective 1.2450

    • USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 149

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 150 opens 153
  • Primary support 140
  • Primary objective is 153

    • XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 2400 opens 2330
  • Primary support 2300
  • Primary objective is 2598

    • BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 58000

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish
  • Above 61000 opens 68000
  • Primary support is 50000
  • Primary objective is 70000

    • More By This Author:S&P Daily Trade Plan – Wednesday, August 14
    Daily Market Outlook – Wednesday, Aug. 14
    SP500 Daily Trade Plan – Tuesday, August 13, 2024 6:15 AM EDT

    Print Friendly, PDF & Email

    Related Posts