person using MacBook Pro on tableImage Source: Unsplash
 Asian stocks and currencies dropped due to economic and geopolitical concerns, despite market optimism about interest rate cuts, a global tech outage adds to the turmoil. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell over 1%, its biggest weekly decline in three months. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong led the region’s losses, as investors were not convinced by the Third Plenum’s efforts to show the economy’s potential for renewed growth. US futures rose after the S&P 500 fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday.The past week has been turbulent for investors, with a sell-off in the tech sector due to escalating trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election, and a disappointing outcome from China’s third plenum. As the global economic situation becomes increasingly uncertain, interest rate expectations have taken a backseat for the time being. The recent attempted assassination of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump may have been a sign of more market turmoil to come, as reflected in the spike in Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX index. On Friday, Asian shares struggled, and the sell-off in technology stocks affected other sectors, with Europe also expected to open lower.Even positive earnings and forecasts from Taiwan’s TSMC were unable to alleviate investors’ concerns about a potential US crackdown on Chinese chips, leading to further declines in the world’s largest contract chipmaker’s shares on Friday. In addition, comments from Trump suggesting that Taiwan should pay for its defense contributed to TSMC’s worst weekly decline since late May, with over $61 billion wiped off its peak market value.The cautious market sentiment on Friday provided some support for the dollar as a safe haven, distancing it from a four-month low caused by expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve easing cycle. In recent days, Fed policymakers have indicated the possibility of a rate cut in September, while the European Central Bank has left the door open for a similar move. On the other hand, the Bank of England has not yet found conditions favorable for a rate cut, and traders have reduced the likelihood of a cut in August.
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • UK Consumers Stay Cautious As New Government Takes Office
  • New Law Aimed To Prevent Repeat Of Truss Mini-Budget
  • France’s National Assembly Elects Macron’s Choice As Its Head
  • Trump Accepts GOP Nomination, Bullet Wound To His Ear And Electoral Wind At His Back
  • Top Democrats Prepare For Campaign Without Biden
  • Once Defiant, Biden Is Now ‘Soul Searching’ About Dropping Out Of Race
  • Fed’s Daly: ‘Not There Yet’ On Price Stability
  • US Fed Governor Bowman Comments In Prepared Speech On Bank Reform
  • Chinese Leaders Sticks To Painful Reform Playbook To Target Risks And Growth
  • China Wraps Third Plenum With Calls For Stronger Social Control And Economic Growth
  • Japan’s Inflation Rate Rose For Second Consecutive Month In June
  • Japan Government Cuts GDP Growth Outlook To 0.9% From 1.3% In FY 2024
  • Kim Jong Un Meets Russian Vice Defense Chief In Pyongyang To Boost Military Ties
  • Drone Explodes In Central Tel Aviv, Killing Man And Wounding Several Others

    • (Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
     FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0900-05 (1.2BLN), 1.0915-20 (586M), 1.0935-40 (471M)
  • 1.0950 (1.2BLN)
  • USD/CHF: 0.8800 (1.1BLN), 0.8900 (280M), 0.8950 (662M), 0.9075 (750M)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2850 (645M), 1.2970-75 (564M), 1.3025 (200M)
  • EUR/NOK: 11.68 (525M), 11.70 (443M)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (176M), 0.8440 (200M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6720-25 (731M), 0.6765 (1.4BLN)
  • NZD/USD: 0.6050 (527M)
  • USD/CAD: 1.3675 (402M), 1.3695-1.3705 (614M), 1.3725 (347M)
  • USD/JPY: 157.00 (620M), 158.00 (789M). EUR/JPY: 172.00 (205M)
     

    • CFTC Data As Of 9/7/24

  • Japanese yen net short position is -182,033 contracts
  • Euro net long position is 3,623 contracts
  • British pound net long position is 84,690 contracts
  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -46,088 contracts
  • Bitcoin net short position is -118 contracts
  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 47,949 contracts to 341,624
  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 24,304 contracts to 977,432
     

    • Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5480

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 5475 opens 5450
  • Primary support 5400
  • Primary objective is 5700

    • EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Above 1.880 opens 1.0940
  • Primary resistance 1.0981
  • Primary objective is 1.0750

    • GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.29

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 1.2670 opens 1.2450
  • Primary support is 1.2690
  • Primary objective 1.3137/60

    • USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 156

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Below 156 opens 153
  • Primary support 152
  • Primary objective is 164

    • XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 2400 opens 2330
  • Primary support 2300
  • Primary objective is 2598

    • BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 62000

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 67000 opens 70000
  • Primary support is 50000
  • Primary objective is 70000

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