Death, Taxes, And Strong Jobless Claims Reports

Yeah, jobless claims are starting to get that dependable in terms of delivering a strong weekly print. This week’s report was no different as first-time claims came in at 212K versus estimates of 215K. So now it’s time to update the streaks. This week’s report was the record 180th straight week of sub-300K claims, the 45th straight week where claims were at or below 250K (longest streak since 1970), and the 6th straight week that claims were at or below 220K (longest streak since 1969).

Despite the decline in claims this week, the four-week moving average increased to 215.5K, which is 2K above the multi-decade low of 213.5K from mid-May. Unless we get a print below 209K next week, the May low will hold for at least another week.

Finally, on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, jobless claims dropped to 179.9K. For the current week of the year, this is the lowest reading on record and nearly 120K below the average of 298K dating back to 2000.