ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging indices this week.

Sorry for the delay in publishing this post – but the internet sucks on Princess Cruises (as they use most of the bandwidth for their internal use). Specifically I would like to thank Brian OConnor, Vice President, Public Relations for Princess Cruises who refused my request for assistance.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating modest growth six months from today.

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth was little changed.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy’s rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

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