December Existing Home Sales Surge Most In History After November Collapse

Following November’s collapse in existing home sales (-10.5% – worst since July 2010), December saw home sales soar 14.7% (the biggest MoM jump ever). Don’t get too excited as this is simply the new (know before you owe) mortgage rules delayed sales coming back. All in all it was a wash over the 2 months and NAR is careful to warn not to expect 2016 to be as good as 2015 for sales.

Biggest jump ever after biggest drop since the crisis…

Here is a regional breakdown of existing home sales:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says December’s robust bounce back caps off the best year of existing sales (5.26 million) since 2006 (6.48 million).

“While the carryover of November’s delayed transactions into December contributed greatly to the sharp increase, the overall pace taken together indicates sales these last two months maintained the healthy level of activity seen in most of 2015,” he said. “Additionally, the prospect of higher mortgage rates in coming months and warm November and December weather allowed more homes to close before the end of the year.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $224,100, up 7.6 percent from December 2014 ($208,200). Last month’s price increase marks the 46th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.

But Larry warns

“Although some growth is expected, the housing market will struggle in 2016 to replicate last year’s 7 percent increase in sales,” adds Yun. “In addition to insufficient supply levels, the overall pace of sales this year will be constricted by tepid economic expansion, rising mortgage rates and decreasing demand for buying in oil-producing metro areas.”

Here’s why…

“December’s rebound in sales is reason for cautious optimism that the work to prepare for Know Before You Owe is paying off,” says NAR President Tom Salomone, broker-owner of Real Estate II Inc. in Coral Springs, Florida. “However, our data is still showing longer closing timeframes, which is a reminder that the near-term challenges we anticipated are still prevalent. NAR advised members to extend the time horizon on their purchase contracts to address this concern, and we’ll continue to work with our industry partners to ensure 2016 is a success for consumers, homeowners and Realtors® alike.”