December Jobs Up 148K Following ADP 250K "Overheating" Estimate

Yesterday, Mark Zanzi feared the jobs market would overheat. ADP estimated 250,000 jobs in Dec. The BLS reports 148K.

Initial Reaction

Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 148,000. The household survey (Table A) shows employment only rose by 104,000 while unemployment fell by 40,000.

ADP estimated December Jobs at a whopping 250,000.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, offered this amiusing comment as noted by ADP: “The job market ended the year strongly. Robust Christmas sales prompted retailers and delivery services to add to their payrolls. The tight labor market will get even tighter, raising the specter that it will overheat.”

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +148,000 – Establishment Survey

Employment: +104,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: -40,000 – Household Survey

Involuntary Part-Time Work: +102,000 – Household Survey

Voluntary Part-Time Work: +100,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: flat at 4.1% – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 8.1% – Household Survey

Civilian Noninstitutional Population: +160,000

Civilian Labor Force: +64,000 – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: +96,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: flat at 62.7 – Household Survey

Employment Report Statement

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted