Deutsche Says Rite Aid Could Fall 53% If Walgreens Deal Fails

Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill points out that according to recent media reports, the Federal Trade Commission still has issues with Walgreens Boots Alliance’s (WBA) proposed acquisition of Rite Aid (RAD) as well as Fred’s (FRED) as a buyer of divested stores.

Should the deal fail to close, Walgreens shares have downside to the $73-$79 range, or up to 14%, Hill tells investors in a research note, citing his analysis.

Rite Aid shares, the analyst suspects, could fall to $2.25 per share, or 53% from current levels, the analyst contends. He believes a key to Walgreens’ decision to certify compliance with the second request could be the current makeup of the FTC, which has three vacant seats along with a Democratic Commissioner and Republican Chairperson. Hill has a Buy rating on Walgreens with a $92 price target, which he notes excludes Rite Aid.