Dollar Gains Extended, But Momentum Fades

The US dollar staged a strong pre-weekend rally on hints that the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year. There was initially follow through dollar buying in Asia before a more stable tone emerged in Europe, where London markets are closed for a bank holiday. The easing of the dollar’s upsidemomentum may set the stage for a bout of profit-taking later today and tomorrow.   

The implied odds of 42% that the Fed hikes rates in a few weeks may see a bigger push back by skeptical market participants. This week’s data is likely to show that neither jobs nor auto sales sustained the July strength.   

The news stream has been light, and investors continue to digest official commentary. In addition to the Fed’s efforts remind the markets of the risk of a hike this year, comments from the ECB and BOJ officials also underscore the divergence meme. The ECB’s Coeure warned that without government action, the central bank might have to “dive deeper” into its “operational framework.” The BOJ’s Kuroda reiterated his warning that there is scope for additional monetary stimulus and that the central bank will “act without hesitation.”

The ECB meets next week on September 8. The BOJ and Fed meet on September 20-21.  

The US reports July personal income and consumption figures today and the August Dall Fed manufacturing survey. Personal income is expected to rise 0.4% after a 0.2% gain in June. It would be a favorable start to Q3. The three, six, and 12-month averages stand a 0.2%.  Consumption is expected to have risen 0.3% after a 0..4% rise in June. Recall that before the weekend, the US revised Q2 GDP slightly lower (1.1% from 1.2%) but revised up the consumption component to 4.4% from 4.2%. That is the second strongest quarterly performance since the Great Finance Crisis. It is not sustainable.  

As the North American desks open, the US dollar is firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar are exceptions. They are posting minor gains. The Japanese yen is the weakest of the majors. It is off a little more than 0.33%.  The dollar climbed to almost JPY102.40 before consolidating. Support is now pegged near JPY101.80. A move above JPY102.60-JPY102.80 signals a resumption of the dollar’s recovery.