Dollar Goes Nowhere Quickly

The US dollar has been confined to extremely narrow ranges against the euro, yen, and sterling. To the extent that there is much action in the foreign exchange market, it is with the dollar-bloc and emerging market currencies.   

The Canadian dollar was whipsawed by comments from the Bank of Canada. A reference to waiting for 18-months initially sent the US dollar from near CAD1.3380 to CAD1.3280. As Governor Poloz clarified his remarks, linking the reference closing the output gap rather than monetary policy per se. It recovered to CAD1.3360 before consolidating.  

Higher metal prices, including a 6% rally in iron ore, a record high in coking coal, and a five-year zinc may have provided the latest excuse to buy the Australian dollar. It is the strongest of the majors today, gaining around 0.4% against the greenback.It has traded on both sides of yesterday’s range but is likely to hold below the key $0.7700 cap that has marked the upper end of the range over the last several months, ahead of the Q3 CPI to be reported in early Sydney on Wednesday.  

The higher metal prices are also helping lift the South African rand. It is the strongest of the emerging market currencies today, gaining 0.65% against the US dollar. On the other hand, the South Korean won is the only emerging market currency outside of the Chinese yuan that has slipped against the US dollar today. The 0.2% decline in the won comes despite a preliminary Q3 GDP that was a little better than expected. The 0.7% quarter-over-quarter growth was a little better than expected, though off from the 0.8% expansion in Q2. The year-over-year pace was 2.7%, again slightly better than expected, but off the 3.3% pace since in Q2. Next exports were a drag.  

Perhaps the weakness of the yen has acted as a drag on the Korean won. The yen is the weakest of the majors after the Canadian dollar. The US dollar is knocking against the highs from earlier this month near JPY104.65. That is the highest level since late-July.Since the early in the Asian session, the dollar has been in a JPY104.35-JPY104.45range for the most part.