Dollar – Oil – Equity Triangle

The dealer banks worked to prop up the overnight futures market in an attempt to hold up prices as we head toward the April 15 tax deadline. But it was mostly in vain, as sellers took immediate advantage and sold into the early spike in prices.

The early strength on Wall Street once again reflected the linear relationship of the dollar and crude oil prices, as the dollar dropped and crude oil prices bounces – along with a minor advance in equity prices.

Despite the gains on the day, the major averages moved lower for the week. The Nasdaq slid by 1.3 percent, while the Dow and the S&P 500 both dropped by 1.2 percent. The NYSE was down by a percent with the small caps close to 2 percent off (-1.82% for the week).

The Triangle

Pay attention to what the dollar and crude oil prices are doing and you will usually be able to peg the equity market. Today, that linear triangle of correlation played out with the U.S. dollar edging lower and crude oil prices advancing in that pegged relationship. Naturally, equities managed a positive close mirroring crude oil, despite the fact the day was mostly filled with strong selling – selling into the minor equity rally.

The U.S. dollar edged slightly lower on Friday, setting a new low for 2016. Meanwhile, a substantial rebound in the price of crude oil helped to provide some support for the equity markets – though sellers took advantage of the early pop.

Crude oil for May delivery surged up $2.26 to $39.52 a barrel after sliding $0.49 to $37.26 a barrel in the previous session.

The rebound in the price of crude oil came on the dollar’s drop and as Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he hopes oil producing nations will agree to an output freeze at a meeting later this month.

Trying to show that the Federal Reserve is in control of the dollar, New York Fed President William Dudley said he believes a cautious and gradual approach to policy normalization is appropriate – in typical Fed doublespeak.