Returning from a two-week business trip to Asia, I was invited to appear on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua. My key points include,the driver now is changing perceptions of the trajectory of Fed policy and the reemergence of divergence.
I suggest that “real news” from the G7 meeting was not about intervention, as neither the US, Europe, nor Japan’s position changed, but rather the fact that Japan will go ahead with the sales tax increase next year. I argue it was unreasonable to expect the BOJ to ease policy so quickly after the move to negative rates in January, and cautioned against exaggerating the significance of Japanese exports. As a percentage of GDP, Japan’s exports around the same as the US, which is less than half of Germany, for example.
Video Length: 00:02:21
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